We have watched the second victory of Donald Trump as president of the United States. His approach of “America First “has given him a victory in the election that "I Shall Return".
The return of Trump is not a surprise to many and has a specific geopolitical implication. Bangladesh is going through lots of challenges and opportunities right at this moment and change in the US administration will have an effective influence in Bangladesh too. Here is a summary of crosscutting issues, affecting US-BD relations from Bangladesh's perspective.
An estimated number of 200 thousand Bangladeshi origin people live in the US, besides these legal numbers there are unconfirmed Bangladeshis are residing in the US, they might have been moved through human trafficking, or may have misused tourist or business visas. Democrats party is favorable to illegal migrants but Republics are not. So Bangladeshis who are not properly documented in the US, their “American Dream” could be at risk.
The USA is consistently funding Bangladesh for good reasons. Recently, the Biden administration has authorized USAID to donate two billion USD to improve the living standards of Bangladesh within the years 2021-2026 under the Development Objective Grant Agreement.
With the change of US administration, there is a risk that funds pouring into Bangladesh ranging from public health to Rohingya refugees could be reduced which will directly impact Bangladesh.
The US currently contributes around 22% of the general UN budget and about 28% to peacekeeping operations. The UN officials already has expressed their anxiety that Trump could drastically cut funding to the UN. If so, this will affect Bangladesh, Bangladesh is the top troops contributing country in the UNPKO.
US-BD bilateral trade is 12 billion USD. The US is the largest buyer of RMG made in Bangladesh. “Trump Return” will likely bring good news for Bangladeshi Businesses. During Trump's 2017-2021, Bangladeshi RMG exports to the US rose from 17 to 18.9 percent according to BGMEA report.
There is news on air that Trump may adopt more anti-China trade measures. If Trump imposes more trade embargo and higher tariffs on China, Bangladesh will get indirect intensive.
The Human Rights and Good Governance agenda may remain unchanged under the new administration. Sanctions on Bangladesh RAB Force and individuals may remain in the coming days too.
Earlier Trump called climate change a “hoax and Scam”, so it is likely that US contribution to climate change initiatives going to be narrow under Trump administration. Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate change. Bangladesh is in need of natural resources protection, early warnings, cyclone shelter, technical assistance etc.
So, Bangladesh will be raising eyebrows if the US fund curtails. Biden administration and Bangladesh Interim Government are maintaining excellent bilateral relations at present. The chief advisor’s office press wing has issued a circular stating that the US election result will not change the approach of both governments.
However, there is a widespread perception that the Yunus administration may not share the same rapport with Trump as they had with the Biden administration. As a result, the General election in Bangladesh may held earlier than anticipated. In his recent tweet, Trump has openly criticized and condemned the torture of the Hindu community in Bangladesh.
Bangladesh is at a crossroads of political junction and this change in US administration is a signal to be navigated carefully. Trump's office will have a dynamic aftermath in the geopolitical landscape for sure. Bangladesh is committed to restoring democracy and upholding human rights. Bangladesh urges all her friends including the US to extend their full support.
Key Observations:
Illegal migrants: Bangladeshis who are not properly documented in the US could be at risk.
Funding in Bangladesh: US funds pouring into Bangladesh ranging from public health to Rohingya refugees, could be reduced and directly impact Bangladesh,
Funding United Nations: The US currently contributes around 22% of the general UN budget and about 28% to peacekeeping operations. If this funding is reduced, it will affect Bangladeshi UN peacekeepers.
Bilateral trade: US-BD bilateral is 12 billion USD. It is likely to be expanded. If Trump imposes more trade embargo on China, Bangladesh will get indirectly intensive.
War on Terror: The Trump administration may not be looking for enemies in foreign lands, so Bangladesh will have fewer difficulties on issues like QUAD.
Human Rights and Good Governance: sanctions on RAB and individuals may be retained in the coming days.
Climate Change Funding: US contribution on climate change initiative likely to be narrowing under Trump administration.
US-BD Interim Govt Relations: The Yunus administration may not share the same rapport with Trump as they had with the Biden administration. General elections in Bangladesh may held earlier than anticipated.
Personal Relation: Professor Yunus has been critical of Trump in the past, and if Trump hasn't forgotten that will bring negative consequences. Trump's recent tweet about Bangladesh indicates that too.
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